Research
CNBC pundit pick alpha, measured.
Every stock pick from Halftime Report and Fast Money, transcribed, scored against SPY across 30/90/180-day windows. Updated as new clips air. The leaderboard ranks by conviction-weighted 90-day alpha — your highest-conviction pick counts more than your throwaway flier.
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Leaderboard
top 12 · min 5 picks · conv-weighted 90d alpha
| # | Pundit | Picks | Hit rate (90d) | Avg α (90d) | Conv-wtd α (90d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jenny Harrington | 7 | 100.0% | +17.08% | +15.31% |
| 2 | Unknown | 64 | 100.0% | +13.28% | +13.16% |
| 3 | Joe Terranova | 50 | 75.0% | +10.00% | +13.08% |
| 4 | Farmer Jim | 13 | 50.0% | +4.63% | +6.42% |
| 5 | Kevin Simpson | 33 | 58.3% | +5.81% | +5.43% |
| 6 | Jenny | 26 | 71.4% | +4.64% | +5.24% |
| 7 | Tim Seymour | 52 | 61.5% | +3.94% | +4.83% |
| 8 | Jim | 10 | 66.7% | +6.33% | +3.75% |
| 9 | Dan | 13 | 50.0% | +2.93% | +2.93% |
| 10 | Sarat Sethi | 37 | 44.4% | +0.58% | +2.20% |
| 11 | Jim Lebenthal | 7 | 100.0% | +2.09% | +2.09% |
| 12 | Stephanie Link | 58 | 42.3% | +1.75% | +1.67% |
32 more below the cut. See the full leaderboard →
Methodology
Source: every Halftime Report and Fast Money clip from CNBC's sitemap. Each is transcribed (Whisper), and an LLM extracts individual stock picks tagged with commentator, ticker, direction (long/short/avoid), conviction (1–5), and rationale.
Returns: forward 1-, 30-, 90-, 180-, and 1-year price changes from pick date, alpha calculated against SPY over the same window. Short picks have their sign flipped. Picks the user marks hidden in Notion are excluded.
Names: Whisper mishears ("Belski" → Brian Belsky, "Sechan" → Rob Sechan) are corrected via the Pundit Watchlist in Notion. Aggregations join on the canonical name, not the raw transcript token.
Commentary score: a separate LLM pass rates each panelist's clarity, falsifiability, and originality. The interesting tension is when the two diverge — pundits who reason rigorously but whose picks don't make money, or vice versa.